- China’s fishmeal demand is expected to weaken at the usual seasonal peak, says IFFO.
- Elevated stock levels have supported current aquafeed and fishmeal usage, but may discourage restocking and reduce future production and feed usage.
- Farm-gate prices for largemouth black bass, snakehead, and yellow catfish remain low, increasing the risk that farmers could scale back production in the coming season.
The international trade organisation for marine ingredients noted that China has yet to see the usual fishing rebound normally expected in February and March.
Market data up to March 2026 shows China, a major driver of global aquaculture and marine ingredients demand, posting year‑on‑year gains in aquaculture output and aquafeed production for major speciality species.
This could weigh on production volumes and feed usage in the following quarter, IFFO analysed.
“Elevated stock levels of certain species have continued to support aquafeed output and fishmeal usage. However, these high inventories may discourage restocking in the next production cycle.”
Furthermore, farm‑gate prices for species including largemouth black bass, snakehead, and yellow catfish remained weak, raising the risk that farmers could scale back production in the coming season.
Against this backdrop, China’s feed ingredient demand was expected to weaken in the third quarter, despite it typically being the peak season for aquaculture activity.
Pork production influence
Demand is also being influenced by pork market dynamics, with piglet prices recently easing amid oversupply and weaker‑than‑expected demand, said IFFO.
“Farmers restocking at current levels may face losses, as market-weight pigs would be sold in approximately six months under unfavourable price conditions. As a result, short-term demand for piglet feed and fishmeal could soften. Piglet demand normally peaks between March and June.”
The organisation also noted that demand could recover if pig prices strengthen in the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, soybean meal prices have fallen amid oversupply and weaker demand, while corn prices have remained broadly stable.
China’s customs data showed soybean imports fell 3.1 per cent year on year in the first three months of 2026.
Fishmeal production fell 38% year on year in March 2026, with cumulative first-quarter output down 28% from 2025.
Fish oil production also declined, though more moderately, with first-quarter output down 12%, supported by resilience in Denmark, Norway, and Spain.
These figures were based on data from IFFO member countries including Chile, Denmark, the Faroe Islands, Iceland, Ivory Coast, Mauritius, Norway, the UK, the US, Peru, South Africa and Spain.
Together, these countries represent about 40% of global fishmeal production and around 50% of global fish oil output.
While this data does not capture 100% of global production, it was indicative of broader market trends.
China fishmeal demand will continue to rise
During IFFO’s most recent Members Meeting in April, IFFO China director Maggie Xu said that demand for fishmeal was set to rise alongside the expansion of its aquaculture and feed sectors.
Xu explained that government authorities were continuing to optimise market access control policies with the aim of improving both accuracy and flexibility.
This followed an exceptionally strong year, with China’s fishmeal and fish oil imports reaching record levels in 2025.
