This outlook was outlined in the China Agricultural Outlook Report (2026–2035), which forecasted a gradual decline in China’s dependence on imported bulk farm commodities as domestic production capacity continues to strengthen and supply structures become more resilient.
Grain imports are projected to trend downward, falling to 115 million tonnes by 2035, a decline of 25.5 per cent compared with the base period– the three-year average for 2023–2025.
Soybean imports are expected to drop to 82.55 million tonnes, down 21.5 per cent.
Imports of cotton, edible vegetable oils, and sugar are forecasted to decrease by 28.2 per cent, 28.2 per cent and 8.7 per cent, respectively.
The report also said that overall agricultural prices were expected to rise gradually, with price differences increasingly reflecting quality across crops, livestock, fruit, vegetables and aquatic products.
The report was prepared by the Agricultural Information Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and released on April 20 by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA).
It focused on 20 major agricultural products or product categories, including grain, cotton, oilseeds and sugar.
China’s view on imports
While international markets are an important supplement to China’s agricultural supply today, the report warned of the risks in relying on imports.
“At present, international markets are an important supplement to China’s agricultural supply. However, rising geopolitical risks, including conflicts in the Middle East, are pushing up crude oil prices, fertiliser costs and shipping rates, with spillover effects on global food production and trade stability, increasing the risk of deteriorating global food security.
“China must therefore remain anchored in domestic production, using the certainty of high-quality agricultural development to counter external uncertainty, keep prices of key agricultural products within reasonable ranges, and continue strengthening market monitoring, early warning and information release to guide social expectations in a positive direction.”
In the short term, the report expressed cautious optimism for 2026.
Production capacity for grain and other strategic commodities was expected to strengthen further, supported by yield gains rather than large expansions in planted area.
Grain and oilseed outputs are projected to rise modestly as policies focus on productivity, resilience and efficient use of land.
Moving forward, grain production is expected to continue rising through yield improvements, reaching 753 million tonnes by 2035.
On the other hand, vegetable and fruit production growth was projected to slow.
However, it highlighted that the sector would improve in terms of quality, efficiency and processing, which would drive value creation.
This was aligned with increasing demand for higher-quality vegetables.
The fruit sector was also making the same transition towards higher-quality development and higher demand for premium fruits was identified as a new growth engine.
The report also highlighted the acceleration of artificial intelligence in agriculture, which was in line with China’s 15th Five-Year Plan.
AI is expected to enable more precise farm management, smarter pest and disease control and lower costs, helping agriculture become more resilient to weather risks and strengthening food security.
It said that efficient supply–demand monitoring and early warning systems based on AI was urgently needed.
