- The DA anticipates a recovery in farm output in the second quarter.
- Despite short-term optimism, rising fuel and input costs, as well as the risk of an El Niño-induced drought, could threaten agricultural production later in the year.
- The sector experienced a weak start to the year, with a 0.3 percent decline in agriculture and fisheries output, mainly due to a drop in crops and fisheries production.
The DA reported on May 6 that rice, livestock, and poultry product was expected to improve in the second quarter of the year. Based on those projections, it was expecting an overall recovery in the near term.
“We are seeing encouraging signs on the ground, with rice production likely recovering in the second quarter as planting conditions normalise, palay prices improve, and government interventions take effect. At the same time, the continued strength of our livestock and poultry sectors is helping cushion overall output and providing stability to food supply,” said Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel Jr.
While Tiu Laurel expressed cautious optimism, he also warned of several risks that could negate any improvements in the coming months.
He flagged rising fuel prices that threatened to raise transport and production costs, particularly for fertiliser and other important farm inputs.
Furthermore, the was a chance of an El Niño-induced drought which could hamper production massively.
Agriculture contributes about 9 per cent of gross domestic product and provides livelihoods for roughly one in five workers.
At the same time, millions of farmers and fisherfolk remain among the poorest Filipinos, while food prices exert a strong influence on inflation.
“While we expect a stronger second quarter, the impact of higher oil prices on transport and inputs, particularly fertiliser, as well as the potential effects of an El Niño-induced drought, could weigh on production in the second half,” said Tiu Laurel
Soft opening
This positive outlook followed a weak start to the year, with agriculture and fisheries production dipping 0.3 per cent to PHP437.52bn (USD7.29bn). The decline was driven by weaker crop and fisheries output.
Crop production, which accounted for almost 56 per cent of total output, fell 2.4 percent to PHP243.62bn (USD4.06bn)
This sector was weighed down by a drop in rice production as Palay output declined 6.26 per cent to 4.4 million metric tons.
This was a result of the impact of the typhoons that hit late in 2025, as well as damaged irrigation systems.
Tiu Laurel also noted that weaker farmgate prices prior to the government’s temporary rice import restrictions from September to December also discouraged planting.
Fisheries production also declined by 6.1 per cent to PHP52.34bn (USD0.87bn), which reflected ongoing structural and environmental hurdles.
In contrast to crops and fisheries, animal production rose.
Livestock output rose 5.1 per cent to PHP60.74bn (USD1.01bn), led by a 6.4 per cent increase in hog production.
Poultry expanded even more strongly, growing 7.1 per cent to PHP80.83bn (USD1.35bn), supported by steady consumer demand for relatively affordable protein.
Tiu Laurel concluded that the first-quarter weakness should be viewed as a temporary setback rather than a sign of long-term decline.
He emphasised that sustained government support, timely interventions, and close monitoring of risks are critical to ensuring recovery.
The overall outlook points to a gradual rebound in agriculture, but he underscored that restoring crop output, especially rice, will be central to stabilising farm incomes, ensuring food security, and easing pressure on consumer prices.
