Ireland, managing partner at rural consultancy Ceres Rural, was speaking at the Cereals Crop Plot Day, a centrepiece of The Cereals Event, which Diddly Squat Farm is scheduled to host on 10-11 June 2026.
He warned that rising fuel and fertiliser prices are creating “very difficult decisions” for arable growers and could have serious consequences if supply disruptions escalate.
There has been uncertainty before, during the Ukraine war, around fuel and fertiliser supply, Ireland said. “This conflict has the potential to stop supply entirely, which would have dire consequences.”
High prices driving efficiency, not paralysis
While the outlook is challenging, Ireland said the crisis is also acting as a catalyst for change, increasing demand for tools that help growers use fertiliser more accurately and efficiently.
“When you walk around a show like Cereals, you need to have your eyes open and look at what new techniques are out there,” he told visitors. “What opportunities are there to mitigate the need for as much fertiliser? Use technology, and there’s lots of that about, to utilise it better.
“There is definitely a drive now. It’s never been more appropriate for people to take on those technologies.”
Diddly Squat trials AI, autonomy and a ‘robodroid’
Jeremy Clarkson, also speaking at the event, said Diddly Squat Farm has been experimenting with a wide range of emerging technologies – including AI, autonomous tractors, underground mapping and even a robodroid – to improve efficiency.
Reflecting on the pressures facing farmers, Clarkson said: “It must be absolutely soul destroying with what’s going on.”
From blanket spreading to tailored nutrition
Speaking to AgTechNavigator, Ireland said the farm is turning to NDVI imagery, soil mapping and variable-rate applications to make more informed fertiliser decisions.
“There are lots of interesting data providers now making technologies much more readily available and much more usable,” he said. “Farmers can access NDVI imagery of their crops, soil mapping, variable-rate seed, and that allows us to use variable-rate nitrogen much more effectively.”
The same approach is now being applied to other inputs, including growth regulators.
“It’s about tailoring inputs to meet crop need rather than blanket spreading,” Ireland said. “That means you save inputs. You’re not using them where they’re not needed, and you are using them when they are.”
Cost, compliance and carbon tighten the screws
Ireland said the economic case for precision input use is growing stronger as nitrogen prices rise and regulation tightens.
“As nitrogen gets more expensive, farmers want to know they are getting value for every pound they are using,” he said. “We also have a nitrogen tax coming next year.”
The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is confirmed to begin on 1 January 2027, effectively acting as a levy on imported nitrogen fertiliser.
“There are so many factors in the world now building towards one message: use this stuff better,” Ireland said.
NDVI adoption still uneven – but access is widening
George Badger, partner at Ceres Rural, said while NDVI data has been available for years, uptake across farms remains uneven.
“A lot of large professional arable businesses have adopted NDVI through subscription packages,” he said. “But the underlying data comes from Sentinel satellites and has been freely available for a long time.”
Badger said this creates an opportunity for smaller or less tech-heavy farms to begin using NDVI without major investment.
“Even at a coarse level, satellite imagery can show variation you just can’t see from walking a field,” he said. “Even without variable-rate application systems, growers can start thinking more field-specifically. I expect that kind of use to increase, because it’s accessible to everyone.”
Weather volatility adds urgency
Interest in crop and soil data is also being accelerated by increasingly erratic rainfall patterns, Badger added.
“Farmers need to understand real-time availability to influence the timing of applications, particularly in seasons like this where rainfall is sporadic,” he said.
There is also growing interest in real-time soil nitrogen sensors and protein prediction tools for milling wheat, which can help determine whether an additional nitrogen top-up is required late in the season.
Biofertilisers under scrutiny as trials expand
Ceres is also working with clients trialling biofertilisers, although Badger said confidence in the category remains mixed.
“There’s a lot of data from the companies themselves, and farm-level trials are increasing,” he said. “But there’s still a lack of knowledge, experience and trust around whether these products consistently work.”
Price is the ultimate driver
Ultimately, it is economics, not ideology, that is pushing change, said Tom Coate, Associate Partner at Ceres Rural.
“Nitrogen has historically been cheap and overapplied, which is why we have Nitrate Vulnerable Zones,” he said. “The moment it goes up in price, people want to use it better which will push people towards this [technology].”
