U.S. corn growers are feeling more confident that they can manage fertilizer price and availability this year than they do about what’s to come in 2027, according to a pair of surveys by the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA).
NCGA surveyed more than 600 U.S. farmers from March 27-April 3 about their fertilizer purchases and application plans.
More than 70% of farmers have purchased 80% of their 2026 phosphate fertilizer, with 11% of surveyed growers having not made any purchases. Similarly, two-thirds of farmers purchased 80% of their 2026 nitrogen fertilizer, compared to 9% who have not made any purchases.
Farmers are split on how much fertilizer to apply this year, with 50% stating they will do a full application, and the other half saying they will only make a partial application. Over a third of farmers (37% of the 50% who are partially applying fertilizer) stated they were cutting back due to price, while 11% were concerned about availability, and 2% about drought conditions.
Nearly 60% of surveyed farmers were more concerned about fertilizer prices and availability in 2027, compared to roughly a third were more concerned about this year’s crop, according to a separate NCGA survey of 1,000 farmers.
This comes as nine states out of the 18 states that grow corn have planted some of this year’s crop, with all the states ahead of last year’s pace, according to the USDA’s Crop Progress report for April 6.
In terms of total percentages, Texas and Tennessee lead the way with 59% and 18% of this year’s crop planted, respectively. At the same point of the season last year, Texas planted 58% of its total year crop, while Tennessee planted only 3%.
Why impacts of the Iran war can be felt for months, years to come
The U.S. and Israel’s war on Iran roiled fertilizer markets and the entire ag market, with cargo traffic through the Strait of Hormuz coming to a crawl during the conflict. Pakistan assisted U.S. and Iran reaching a two-week ceasefire, starting April 8, contingent on the Strait of Hormuz opening, as the countries work on a peace deal.
Other pressures are also adding to rising fertilizer prices, NCGA noted. For instance, fertilizer suppliers Mosaic Corporation and J.R. Simplot continue to support countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate fertilizers, which are adding to price pressure, as the country halts shipments to the U.S.
“Fertilizer prices were high even before the war in Iran began. Added market stress due to the Strait of Hormuz closure has only intensified an already difficult situation, particularly as we look towards 2027,” said Jed Bower, Ohio farmer and NCGA president, in a press release.
If the Iran war ends, farmers are still likely to feel the impact on fertilizer and crop protection chemical prices for months and years to come, Stephen Nicholson, North American head of crop at Rabobank, shared in a recent AgTechNavigator article.
“Each day the conflict continues, there is more damage to infrastructure and dwindling supplies of energy, chemicals, etc. — all contributing to higher prices. The other issue is — even if the war ends tomorrow — it is going to have a long tail. The infrastructure built up around the oil and chemical industry took years to build and will not come back online overnight. They are not turnkey operations,” he added.
