The agriculture industry is bracing for the potential of supply chain disruptions as the Iran war stretches into its second week, which comes at a crucial time for U.S. growers who are preparing for the 2026 planting season.
The U.S. and Israel bombed Iran in a joint military operation, hitting Tehran and other cities and killing Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Feb. 28. The conflict has thus spread to the surrounding region, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Turkey and other countries.
A waterway between the Gulf of Oman and Persian Gulf, The Strait of Hormuz, is central to supply chain concerns, given its important to the global fertiliser and energy markets. The Iranian government has closed the Strait of Hormuz to foreign ships and has bombed several merchant ships, according to media reports on March 11, 2026.
Nearly half (49%) of global urea exports and 30% of global ammonia exports are potentially exposed to the conflict in Iran, according to American Farm Bureau Federation market intel. Qatar and Saudi Arabia also account for the third and fourth largest supplier of fertiliser to the U.S., behind Canada and Russia, the American Farm Bureau Federation reported.
Urea prices have surged to $585 per ton and up 52.15% year-over-year, according to Trading Economics data accessed on March 11, 2026.
What the Iran war will mean for the 2026 growing season?
The conflict comes as U.S. farmer gear up for the 2026 planting season. During the spring season, approximately 50% of total nitrogen imports are applied to corn, 42% to spring wheat, and 28% to cotton, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.
Stock insight: How major fertiliser providers are responding to Iran war
The stock prices of major fertiliser producers, like Canadian Nutrien and Norwegian Yara International, have been unimpacted by the Middle East conflict. Nutrien stock closed at $76.09 and Yara at $25.57 on March 10, up roughly 23.50% and 25.30% year-to-date, respectively.
American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall urged President Trump in a letter to consider the agriculture and consumer implications of the Middle East conflict.
“Without strategically prioritizing the delivery of critical farm inputs such as urea, ammonia, nitrogen, phosphate, and sulfur-based products, the U.S. risks a shortfall in crops. Not only is this a threat to our food security — and by extension our national security — such a production shock could contribute to inflationary pressures across the U.S. economy,” Duvall said in a statement.
‘The second most expensive corn crop on record’
The American Farm Bureau Federation was not the only farmer group who weighed in on concerns about what the Iran war will mean for fertiliser prices, with the National Corn Growers Association raising concerns about inflation to crop inputs.
“Farmers have navigated extremely high fertilizer prices for several years and have faced sustained expensive input prices for the past four years. The uncertainty in the Middle East complicates this situation as farmers will soon be planting the second most expensive corn crop on record,” Jed Bowe, Ohio farmer and president of the National Corn Growers Association, said in a statement.
He added, “While farmers source domestically when possible, the U.S. cannot solely provide for the fertilizer needs of corn farmers; imports are necessary. Unfortunately, some fertilizer providers have previously taken actions that blocked foreign suppliers from the U.S. market and only further exacerbated an already inflated market. We are fearful that additional disruptions to supply chains will justify price increases that will be expected to be borne by those already struggling under the weight of consecutive years of negative returns. We would welcome conversations with fertilizer providers on options to weather the current uncertainty in partnership with their most important customers.”
