The first Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) Program payments are starting to hit U.S. farmers’ bank accounts, which are largely helping growers pay down debts, according to Purdue University and CME Group’s Ag Economy Barometer for Feb. 2026.
Each month, the Ag Economy Barometer surveys 400 food producers for their thoughts on the state of the ag industry. Previous Ag Economy Barometer reports asked U.S. farmers view competition with Brazilian growers and tariffs, as AgTechNavigator reported.
Farmer sentiment ticked up slightly in February to 116, compared to 113 from the previous month. Almost half of farmers (44%) stated that their operations are worse off than last year, with 29% expecting worse financial performance this year.
More than half (51%) of surveyed producers plan to expand their operations in the next year, with 14% of those planning to expand by 10%. Over a third (34%) of farmers have no plans to grow their operations, and 15% said they plan to reduce the size of their operations.
Farmers face rising input costs, market access concerns, and tariff uncertainty, accelerating farm bankruptcies in 2025. Last year, 315 farms filed for bankruptcy, a 46% increase from 2024, according to Farm Bureau analysis from U.S. Court filings.
What farmer debt means for the ag machinery market
Late last month, the USDA opened enrollment to the FBA Program, with the last day to apply set for April 17, 2026. Nearly half (47.4%) of farmers stated that they will use FBA payments to pay down debt, 26.7% will use the assistance to improve working capital, and 11.7% for family living, Purdue reported.
Additionally, 14.2% of growers will use the assistance to invest in machinery, but only 7% expect to increase their spending on equipment. Purdue’s Farm Capital Investment Index rose three points to hit 50 in February.
This comes as large ag original equipment manufacturers, like John Deere, CNH Industrial, and AGCO, projected confidence at the start of 2026 that the worst of the market uncertainty is behind them.
John Deere predicts that 2026 will be the bottom of the ag machinery market down cycle, as the OEM experienced growth in its small ag and turf business in its first quarter, ending Feb. 1, 2026.
CNH Industrial stated that 2026 will be a trough year, during an earnings call for its full-year 2025 results, as AgTechNavigator reported. Then, Damon Audia, senior VP and CFO for AGCO, shared similar comments during his appearance at the Raymond James 47th Annual Institutional Investors Conference.
