Fishmeal and fish oil production in China was estimated to have fallen by 20 to 30 per cent year on year in 2025, according to the Marine Ingredients Organisation (IFFO).
According to IFFO Market Research Director Dr Enrico Bachis, the contraction reflects a combination of higher costs, weaker profitability for local producers and ample global supply limiting incentives for domestic production.
“Such a drop is not unusual. In fact, the 2024 production contracted more sharply compared with 2023. Improved global supply – particularly from Peru – alongside higher import volumes into China in 2025 have diminished the potential profitability for Chinese marine ingredients producers.”
Looking ahead, there are no clear signals pointing to a recovery in 2026, as China’s fishing off-season typically runs till the end of April
“Based on the current situation, there are no clear signs of a recovery in 2026. China is presently in the fishing off-season, which lasts until the end of April 2026. From May, the summer fishing moratorium will be in effect through August or September. As production is heavily concentrated in the fourth quarter, and assuming Peru experiences two normal fishing seasons in 2026, domestic production is likely to remain broadly in line with 2025 levels rather than showing a meaningful rebound,” said Bachis.
In light of this, imports are increasingly significant in China’s marine ingredients market.
In 2025, China’s fishmeal imports rose by around 5 per cent year on year, with Peruvian exports accounting for 45 to 50 per cent of the total fishmeal imports.
China aquaculture expected to grow
Meanwhile, China’s aquaculture production continues to expand at a modest pace, with output in 2025 expected to exceed 2024 levels.
“China farms a wide variety of species, and if sustained feed cost inflation undermines the profitability of certain species, farmers typically shift production toward alternative species. Official aquaculture production data suggests overall growth continues, albeit at a relatively modest pace,” said Bachis.
Fishmeal demand from aquaculture will be driven mainly by white-leg shrimp farming in South China.
“White-leg shrimp is the dominant species farmed in South China during the winter season, and its production volume plays a major role in driving overall fishmeal demand. We estimate that around 200,000 mt of fishmeal are consumed annually to produce shrimp feed in China,” said Bachis.
Against this landscape, Bachis does not expect global fishmeal supply is expected to remain balanced.
“At present, 2026 does not point to any meaningful shift in the fishmeal supply–demand balance. The market remains aligned with the broader trend of steadily rising global demand for animal feed ingredients, alongside average global fishmeal production of around 5.2 million mt. Feed companies have demonstrated over the years to be well equipped to tune their feed formulas to mix the available feed ingredients in the most cost-efficient way,” said Bachis.
China’s increased import reliance has also yet to translate into price pressure. With aquaculture activity currently in the off-season, pricing remains largely supply-driven.
Overall, China’s marine ingredients outlook for 2026 appears stable and will only face major disruption under extreme climatic conditions, said Bachis.
“Meaningful production declines tend to occur only during strong El Niño events affecting Pacific waters off Latin America. Current forecasting models, however, do not indicate the presence of a strong El Niño in 2026.”
