U.S. farmers are gearing up for the 2026 growing season, but tariff uncertainty is complicating crop input purchase decisions, with some growers even contemplating not protecting their crops this year because of high prices and market access questions, as a panel of ag experts shared during the second day of the Illinois Fertilizer & Chemical Association convention in Peoria, Ill., Jan. 21-23.
Amid the volatility, some growers are leaving crops on the ground because they do not have a buyer or a market, explained Daren Coppock, CEO and president at the Agricultural Retailers Association. More stories are emerging of cotton farmers contemplating walking away from their acreage and soybean being left on the ground in Iowa, Coppock added.
“From back in the first administration of Trump, [we] lost our number one export position to China for soybeans, and within this last 12 months, we pretty much lost the entire market,” Coppock noted.
Many farmers are postponing or forgoing investments, including skipping crop protection entirely this year, explained Alexandra Dunn, CEO and president for the trade association CropLife America.
“Are you going to put and apply crop protection on a crop that is essentially not going to turn a profit? So that is a [real] choice that a grower is going to make. If that soybean crop is not going to yield value to the farmer, they may not make any investment at all in protecting it,” she elaborated.
Tariff rollback, strong crop production could boost fertiliser demand
While fertiliser prices rose in 2025 due to tariffs, policy changes, and a need to restore soil health, provide tailwinds for the fertliser market in 2026.
The Trump administration rolled back tariffs on urea, ammonium sulfate, ammonium nitrate, calcium ammonium nitrate, and urea ammonium nitrate through an executive order last November.
“Effectively, all fertilisers — with the exception of ammonia — are exempt from tariffs. So, we are looking now at ... an environment that is a lot easier to understand. You know what it is going to cost getting into the spring season," elaborated Alexis Maxwell, senior equity analyst at Green Markets.
Additionally, many growers will need to replenish nutrients in their soil due to stronger-than-expected production. For instance, the USDA reported that the country is expected to produce a record 17 billion bushels of corn in 2025, which resulted in corn futures dropping.
“We had a big corn crop come off this year. We are going to have to replenish those nutrients. So, we have a backlog of demand heading into this spring. And from my chair, it is a good thing that we have certainty now around what the tariff picture looks like for fertiliser imports, so we can respond to what the market is telling us,” Maxwell added.
