U.S. grower sentiment on the ag economy is showing fresh signs of weakness, as farmers anticipate trade uncertainty and increased global competition in 2026, according to a report from Purdue University and the CME Group.
Purdue University and the CME Group release a monthly Ag Economy Barometer report, which tracks farmer sentiment and top ag concerns. The January 2026 report included survey responses from U.S. producers from Dec. 1-5, 2025.
The Ag Economy Barometer — a measure of farmer sentiment — declined from 139 in Nov. to 136 in Dec. 2025, partially attributed to a decline in producers’ long-term outlook, the report stated. The index of future expectations dropped 4 points from 144 in November to 140 in December, while the sentiment of current conditions remained unchanged at 128.
Additionally, U.S. producers are increasingly concerned about competition from their Brazilian counterparts. Nearly all growers (84%) were either very concerned or concerned about U.S. soybean exports competing against Brazilian exports.
Brazil has surpassed the U.S. as the number one producer of soybeans, with the Latin American country expected to produce 177.7 million metric tons in the 2025/26 harvest, 3.6% more than the previous year’s harvest, according to projections from the Brazilian National Supply Company (Conab).
The U.S. is projected to produce 115.751 million metric tons of soybeans in the 2025/2026 harvest, down from the previous year’s 119.047 million metric tons, according to Statista reporting.
“Even with some stability in expectations for their own operations, producers remain cautious about longer-term decisions. Uncertainty surrounding agricultural trade and growing concern about global competitiveness continue to influence how farmers think about the future,” said Michael Langemeier, director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture and the barometer’s principal investigator, said in a press release.
Are farmers souring on tariffs?
Despite market volatility and competition, U.S. growers largely believed that the U.S. is heading in the right direction, according to the survey. Three-fourths (75%) of producers said that the U.S. is heading in the right direction, and 54% of survey respondents stated tariffs strengthened the ag economy.
However, sentiment on tariffs has shifted over the last year, with 70% of producers stating that tariffs will strengthen the economy in the April and May reports. Overwhelmingly, farmers voted for Donald Trump, with the president receiving 77.7% of farming counties’ votes, according to the USDA and 2024 election results.
In early December, the Trump administration revealed a bailout package worth $12 billion in the form of one-time bridge payments to growers. Then, the USDA revealed commodity rates for specific crops on Dec. 31, which was met with appreciation and concerns that assistance didn’t go far enough, as AgTechNavigator reported.
