The ag industry is no stranger to volatility. Shocks across one end of the ag supply chain can ripple from one end of the world to the other, whether it is the Russia-Ukraine war on the grain markets or climate change in Africa impacting global cocoa supplies.
However, volatility in 2025 was different. A major source of volatility did not come from a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic, war, or ecological disaster, but instead from changing U.S. trade policy, which created uncertainty across the agriculture supply chain and for business leaders.
On April 2, President Donald Trump unveiled a major pillar of his economic and trade policy, a reciprocal tariff scheme that the administration dubbed “Liberation Day.” The days and months that followed were filled with back-and-forth announcements about tariffs being imposed or lifted on specific countries, with specifics on deals often scant.
Economists and market analysts waited for price increases to snake through the supply chain, as the ag industry faced dropping commodity prices. Tariffs showed up in the form of increased crop input and machinery prices. John Deere’s business experienced softer sales as steel costs rose.
Global trade winds change in 2025
In 2025, trade alliance rewired amid the uncertainty — Brazil moved closer to China and vice versa. As China pulls back on U.S. soybeans in favour of Brazil, farmers will have to carefully consider what they plan next year, as sticking with soybeans and switching to a new crop both come with risks.
In November, the U.S. forged new trade relationships with Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador, and Guatemala — with key provisions on agricultural goods — at the same time as the Trump administration contemplates military action in Venezuela.
This follows the Trump administration offering a financial lifeline to Argentina — a country that has defaulted on its debt nine times since its independence.
Elsewhere in Latin America, a bloc of countries called the Mercosur — including Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay — sought to close a trade deal with the European Union (EU) that has been 26 years in the making.
The goals of the Mercosur-EU deal would be to increase bilateral trade and investments between the two regions, create more predictable trade rules, and encourage sustainable development, including fighting climate change and bolstering environmental efforts, as the European Commission shared.
This month, France and Italy voiced concerns about what the deal would mean for their respective agriculture industries, as Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula for short) said that if the EU didn’t sign now, he would not sign any other deal with the bloc in his term, according to media reporting.
What 2026 elections could mean for the ag industry?
The U.S. holds mid-term elections in 2026, which could further reshape agricultural policy. This year, the Trump administration responded to volatility by bailing out farmers to the tune of $12 billion, supposedly funded by the tariffs that created the volatility in the first place.
The administration also bolstered the push for regenerative agriculture through a $600 million commitment, funded through existing programmes.
The start of 2026 could also see the return of the farm bill, as House Republicans push for a bill markup ahead of a Jan. 30 funding deadline, according to reporting from E&E News.
Further south, Brazil will hold a presidential election on Oct. 4, 2026, Lula will seek a fourth term. Lula has leaned into Brazil’s thriving agriculture industry ─ which has become one of the largest in the world ─ to drive the country’s overall gross domestic product.
This year, the 2025 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) served as one of the country’s largest branding events, demonstrating Brazil’s capacity for addressing the climate crisis with agricultural innovation and technological advancements.
These were some of the major stories coming out of the Americas for 2025. For a deeper look back at some of these stories, revisit these top articles:
- Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill creates agtech uncertainty, PitchBook reports
- Investing in Brazil: How COP30 put the country’s ag sector ‘on the map’ in 2025
- Breaking the bailout or bust cycle: Why some farmers are cautious about more govt support
- Why are US farmers struggling to adopt sustainable ag?
- 6 trends driving the future of agtech at the World Agri-Tech Innovation Summit in London