The U.S. and Mexico resolved a water rights dispute over the 1944 Water Treaty, but questions remain on whether the Latin American country can meet its obligations in the face of water scarcity issues and droughts.
Per the resolution, Mexico will release 202,000-acre feet of water to the U.S., starting the week of Dec. 15, with a final plan to be released by the end of January 2026, according to a U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) press release.
The 1944 Water Treaty between the two countries stated that Mexico must deliver 1.75 million acre-feet of water to the U.S. from the Rio Grande River, while the U.S. would deliver 1.5 million acre-feet of water to Mexico from the Colorado River, the USDA stated.
Water is tracked through five-year cycles, with Mexico able to carry over deficits from one year to another. Over the years, Mexico has fallen short of delivering its water commitments, with the country only delivering about 885,000 acre-feet of water total for the five-year cycle, ending Oct. 24, 2025.
This is leading to “shortages for Rio Grande Valley farmers and ranchers, devastating crops, costing jobs, and threatening the local economy,” the USDA stated.
Before the resolution, Donald Trump stepped into the dispute, raising the prospect of unspecified 5% tariffs on Mexico if the country did not meet its water obligations and release water “immediately,” the President shared in a Truth Social post.
“I thank Mexico for their willingness to abide by the treaty and return to good standing with their past obligations. Mexico has delivered more water in the last year than in the previous four years combined. Although this is a step in the right direction, President Trump has been very clear: if Mexico continues to violate its commitments, the United States reserves the right and will impose 5% tariffs on Mexican products,” said Brooke Rollins, Secretary of Agriculture, in a press release.
Is Mexico using or exploiting the 1944 Water Treaty?
The Mexican government pushed back on claims it is not delivering enough water, stating the country “is meeting its obligations according to actual water availability,” as shared in a press release.
In recent years, Mexico faced droughts, but rainfall in 2025 is providing some relief. More than a tenth (10.6%) of Mexico is facing moderate to exceptional drought conditions, with the most impacted regions (the states of Chihuahua and Coahuila), bordering the U.S., according to data from Nov. 30 from Mexico’s National Water Commission’s Drought Monitor.
Texas legislators are trying to enact stronger enforcement of the Water Treaty to prevent future deficits. Senators Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and John Cornyn (R-Texas) introduced the Ensuring Predictable and Reliable Water Deliveries Act of 2025, as shared in a press release.
“The Mexican government exploits the structure of the treaty to defer and delay its deliveries in each individual year until it becomes impossible for it to meet its overall obligations, and it continues to fail to meet its obligation to deliver water to the United States under the 1944 Water Treaty. These failures are catastrophic for Texas farmers and ranchers, who rely on regular and complete deliveries by Mexico under the treaty and are on the front lines of this crisis, facing water shortages that threaten agriculture and livestock. Without stronger congressional pressure and oversight, Mexico will continue to fail to meet its obligations,” Cruz elaborated in a press release.
